Financial News

Scotiabank Sees Canada's New Vehicle Sales Rising Gradually This Year, in 2027 After Q1 2026 Holds Steady

Canadian auto sales marginally declined 0.1% month over month to 1.81 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in March, based on data from Omdia, said Scotiabank.Upward revisions to data for January and February resulted in Q1 sales averaging 1.79 million SAAR units, stronger than previously expected but still down 0.2% relative to Q4 2025.Non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) sales reported by the same source for March were 170,600, down 7.8% year over year, although compared with a relatively strong start last year before newly imposed tariffs began to upend global trade.When comparing Q1 sales in NSA terms against the same period across recent years, sales were down 6.5% relative to 2025 and down 2.3% relative to 2024.The recent decline in seasonally adjusted new vehicle sales may have bottomed out, as the selling rate over the past two months has increased in line with historical trends, stated Scotiabank. However, only time will tell as there remains a host of competing factors that will impact demand.Canada's overall employment level contracted in January and February, while the unemployment rate trended sideways around 6.7% three-month moving average. Global oil prices remain elevated amid the conflict in the Middle East, which is widely expected to push up headline inflation, while the Bank of Canada will be looking for signs of risks that higher input costs are being passed through to core inflation.While the bank estimates that higher oil prices are likely a small net positive to Canadian gross domestic product growth, higher costs at the pump may weigh on vehicle demand in the near term. Meanwhile, the new federal Electric Vehicle Affordability Program may boost EV sales over the coming months.Scotiabank's outlook for Canadian light vehicle sales is 1.81 million this year. The bank expects demand to gradually improve throughout this year and next, rising to 1.87 million in 2027, although with larger uncertainty given elevated and volatile oil prices clouding the outlook.

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Market Chatter: Saudi Pipeline Attack After Ceasefire Threatens Key Oil Export Route

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, carrying about 5 million barrels per day, was hit by a drone strike after a ceasefire, according to multiple media reports on Wednesday.The strike hit a pumping facility along the pipeline, with officials still evaluating the scale of the impact, according to the reports.The pipeline is a key corridor linking eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.Saudi Arabia has been running the line at close to full capacity, supporting about 70% of its pre-conflict export levels, underscoring its importance to both national output and broader oil market stability, the reports added.US President Donald Trump has called on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire terms, but shipping remained largely restricted on Wednesday, keeping Saudi export routes via Yanbu critical, according to the reports.has reached out to Saudi Aramco for any comments on this.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

RPM Beats Fiscal Third-Quarter Estimates, Affirms Sales Growth Expectations

RPM International's (RPM) fiscal third-quarter results topped market expectations, while the specialty coatings manufacturer reiterated its sales growth outlook for the ongoing three-month period.The company on Wednesday reported adjusted earnings of $0.57 per share for the quarter ended Feb. 28, up from last year's $0.35, which was the consensus on FactSet. Sales advanced 8.9% to $1.61 billion, topping the Street's view of $1.55 billion.The stock jumped 12% in Wednesday trade, taking its year-to-gain 4.8%. RPM is the parent of brands including Varathane, which offers wood-finishing products."In a period of volatile market conditions, we generated volume growth and record sales by utilizing our competitive strengths and nimbly focusing on growing end markets," Chief Executive Frank Sullivan said in a statement. "We demonstrated our ability to combine growth with efficiency, leveraging higher volumes to expand margins across all segments."RPM continues to project fourth-quarter sales to increase by a mid-single digit versus the prior-year period. The Street is looking for $2.17 billion."We expect to grow sales and adjusted (earnings before interest and taxes) again in the fourth quarter and deliver record results, even as we face more challenging comparisons and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East adds cost and complexity to the operating environment," according to Sullivan.The US and Iran on Tuesday agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The war, which began at the end of February, spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices.The company is seeking to mitigate higher raw material costs and ensure supply, while implementing pricing actions to offset the remaining cost headwinds, Sullivan said.In the third quarter, sales in the construction products segment climbed nearly 11% to $546.7 million, driven by the company's North American businesses. The performance coatings division saw revenue increase 8.4% to $496.8 million, while the consumer business improved 7.9% to $564.5 million.Price: $108.69, Change: $+11.98, Percent Change: +12.39%

$RPM

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop Nearly 5% on US-Iran Ceasefire, Uncertainties Persist

US natural gas futures were down by over 4% on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, marking a major de-escalation in the conflict.Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract dropped 4.77% to $2.73 per million British thermal units.In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced a pause on attacks against Iran, following a successful ceasefire amid mediation with Pakistan.This was also confirmed by Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in a post on X, who also added that for a period of two weeks, ships will be allowed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in coordination with Iran's armed forces and subject to "technical limitations."Even though prices have dropped sharply following the announcement, analysts aren't exactly calling it a clean resolution yet, pointing to lingering uncertainty around key details of the agreement.Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist, was quick to point out that the critical global energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, "is not open," and was in fact, being "conditionally managed," with Tehran now fully in control.He also said that despite the drop in natural gas prices, risk premiums for oil, LNG, and shipping markets continued to remain elevated, which he said was a sign of lingering uncertainty.Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy expects US natural gas prices to reverse, saying that he sees prices at "$3 for the near term and $3.25 for summer."Cunningham also noted that LNG faced a tougher road to recovery since "Qatari facilities were hard hit by Iranian strikes," resulting in a significant chunk of global capacity going offline.Meanwhile, domestic weather conditions continued to turn bearish, with most parts of the country expected to experience above-normal temperatures from April 15 to April 21, according to the National Weather Service.

Update: Analysts Greet Ceasefire News With Caution, Express Doubts Over Hormuz Normalization

(Adds comments from oil economist Mamdouh Salameh in ninth to 12th paragraphs.)While markets awoke to welcome news of a US ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday, prompting a rapid plunge in oil and gas futures, analysts voiced doubt over any hoped-for stampede of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to replenish tight global supplies.While the ceasefire defused the most tense moment in the war so far, after US President Donald Trump warned an entire civilization could die within hours if no deal was reached, the foes return to diplomacy from here with two radically different sets of demands.With prospects for reconciling their positions still dim, some analysts have questioned whether Wednesday's market reaction may be overdone, skeptical that ships can proceed as before back and forth across the Strait of Hormuz."The relief rally in oil is understandable but should be treated with caution in our view. The ceasefire effectively halts imminent large-scale strikes and creates space for negotiations, but it does not resolve the underlying conflict or infrastructure damage," said Suvro Sarkar, Head of Energy Research at DBS."Critically, even with the Hormuz corridor technically reopening, restoration will not be instant; trust in safe passage through Hormuz will remain fragile and Middle East oil production shut-ins will unlikely return to pre-conflict levels until late 2026," he said.Reuters reported that senior executives at shipping firms Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd both expressed similar sentiments on Wednesday, that they will proceed with caution until trust is established.Sarkar said the market will likely price in "heightened geopolitical risk premiums rather than a return to pre-war stability.""Oil and fuel prices will likely remain elevated until a permanent solution is reached to the crisis," he said.International oil economist Mamdouh G. Salameh said Brent crude futures could fall to $90 a barrel for the duration of the ceasefire. Should it end with no deal, however, he expected Brent could rebound to $120 or higher."The ceasefire will be very fragile particularly that the two sides don't trust each other. Prices may maintain a low profile until the end of the ceasefire and then head upward very quickly," he said."The volumes of oil and Qatari LNG that will pass through the Strait will be far below pre-war levels until repairs taking at least six months are done to their oil and gas production facilities that were damaged during the war," he said."Instead of 20.0 [mmbbl/d] of Gulf oil, an estimated 10.0 [mmbbl/d] could pass and the same applies to Qatari LNG."Thousands of seafarers have been stuck aboard hundreds of ships unable to leave the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, with many low on supplies.Asian importers, the main buyers of Middle Eastern oil and gas, have borne the brunt of the sudden limitations on supply, shortening work weeks and taking other 'demand destruction' measures, while some European governments have made various cuts on energy taxation at retail level.Analysts had generally expected the shortages to become more acute the longer the conflict endures. The market's immediate sentiment is now likely to revolve around the pace of resumed traffic through the Hormuz Strait.Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta Commodities, said some statements he had seen suggest there may be no significant rise in Hormuz traffic at all, potentially just "10 to 15 vessels to cross per day as negotiations take place."Meanwhile Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that movement of ships must now be coordinated with Iran, raising doubts about how willing it will prove to flex on its main source of negotiating leverage in the conflict so far."For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations," he said on Twitter following the agreement of the ceasefire.Beyond the immediate issue of the strait, markets have been fundamentally altered by the widespread damage done to refineries and logistical facilities with lead times in some cases expected to run into several years, analysts have estimated.In the aviation sector, Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association, or IATA, said on Wednesday that it would take months for jet fuel supplies to normalize even with a reopened Strait of Hormuz in light of that disruption to refineries, Reuters reported.Walsh said that refineries in India and Nigeria were two countries with potential capacity to increase refined product supply and he expressed hope China and South Korea would also export more once crude flows stabilize."If it (Hormuz) were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East," Walsh said.

"Most Curious Development" Today Is Why Traders Still Believe Next Move By the BoC Will Be a Rate Hike, says Rosenberg Research

According to Rosenberg Research in a comment on Canada within Wednesday's 'Early Morning With Dave' note a "most curious development today" is why traders still believe the Bank of Canada will be making its next move a rate hike, "or a steady diet of rate hikes, for that matter.""Consumer confidence just sagged to its lowest level in 11 months, so why not add interest rates to the list of factors depressing the local economy?," asks Rosenberg Research, sarcastically.At a time when, pre-Iran war, there was absolutely no inflation problem to speak of, it notes.Over the past month, the research notes, the share of Canadians seeing economic improvement has practically been sliced in half to a mere 15% from 27%. And for the first time in over four years, the Canadian economy has shed more than 100,000 jobs in a two-month span. "Fertile environment for a BoC rate increase, don't you think?," it says, while also noting home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in March were 52% below the norm of the past 10 years."So as things stood before the Iran war, all Canada's central bank was doing in its easing process was pushing against a string because it's difficult to stimulate credit-related activity when domestic consumer balance sheets are saddled with a near-record debt-to-income ratio," it said.Rosenberg Research further asks: Concerned about inflation in Canada? How about deflation? As, it says, in the grim reality that average home prices, which represent $8.5 trillion of assets on the household balance sheet (2.5 times the size of nominal gross domestic product), have declined 7% over the past year in the GTA -- and more to come with supply hitting the market to such an extent that new listings have ballooned 11.5% on a year-over-year basis.Rosenberg said that it wasn't the only one who didn't see a BoC rate hike because the foreign exchange market was doing so too by taking the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) to $1.39 (below 72 US cents) for the first time in four months.

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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Down Over 19% Amid US-Iran Ceasefire, but Analysts Remain Cautious

European natural gas futures witnessed a steep decline on Wednesday, after Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire and to allow vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.The front-month Dutch TTF contract dropped 18.59% to 43.35 euros ($50.76) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were down 19.24% to 109.03 British pence ($1.40) per therm.In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump shared a statement from Iran's Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, who said Tehran would ensure safe passage through the Strait, subject to "coordination" with the country's armed forces, within technical limitations, if attacks against it halted.Trump called off strikes against Tehran for a period of two weeks, during which both sides are set to meet and sign a finalized agreement.In a subsequent post, Trump also said that the US will be helping deal with the traffic build-up in the Strait of Hormuz, which had been brought to a standstill for over a month, amid the ongoing conflict.Currently, the Strait continues to remain effectively closed, with just 11 vessels passing through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.That is still far from the typical pre-war daily traffic of 138 vessels per day, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said that even if shipping routes reopen, the "missing Qatari output cannot be replaced quickly," which he said will lead to inventory drawdowns and demand rationing. He said he foresees "limited downside" for LNG prices.His concerns were echoed by Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist, who noted that the Strait was not yet open, and if anything, it was now being "conditionally managed," with Tehran now retaining significant leverage over global energy flows.He concluded by saying that the ceasefire announced on Tuesday was not a de-escalation, but rather a shift towards "controlled instability," which he said would have profound implications on maritime trade, energy security, and geopolitics going forward.Meanwhile, Europe has just begun net injections into its storage inventories, which are currently depleted at just 28.61% of capacity, compared to 35.01% during the same period last year.JP Morgan analysts noted that Northwest Europe exited winter with its lowest gas inventories since 2011, at 17.6% of storage capacity.Analysts expect the bloc will need to add 31 billion cubic meters of gas into storage between April and October to meet the European Union's 80% storage requirement before next winter.

Newcore Gold Provides Additional Drill Results from Enchi Project in Ghana

Newcore Gold (NCAU.V) reported Wednesday additional drill results from the 60,000-meter drill program underway at the Enchi gold project in Ghana.In a statement it said diamond drilling results from the Sewum gold deposit encountered wide zones of gold mineralization in the shallow oxide-transition and the upper fresh mineralization, including hole SWDD107 which intersected 1.59 grams per tonne (g/t) gold over 15.5 meters, including 3.22 g/t gold over 6.4 m.The company said drilling continues to demonstrate the continuity of gold mineralization and potential for resource growth at Enchi."Initial results from diamond drilling completed at Sewum have extended gold mineralization below the pit-constrained mineral resource estimate released in March of this year, while also confirming near-surface lateral continuity in the adjacent sub-parallel structures," Vice President of Exploration Greg Smith said."Importantly," he added, "although this drilling represents the deepest drilling completed to date at Sewum, holes only reached a maximum vertical depth of 140 metres, with the mineralized zone open at depth. The drilling also returned grades exceeding the mineral resource estimate grade both at surface and below the pits. With drilling ongoing and focused on defining the resource growth potential at depth and along strike, we are excited to continue to advance the district scale exploration opportunity at our Enchi Gold Project in Ghana."Shares in NCAU were down 2.5% in Canada yesterday.

$NCAU.V

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US-Iran Ceasefire, Potential Reopening of Hormuz Lift US Equity Futures Pre-Bell

US equity futures rose pre-bell Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 2.5% higher, S&P 500 futures were up 2.6%, and Nasdaq futures were 3.4% higher.President Donald Trump said that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was a key condition of the ceasefire, and Iran has agreed to allow the safe transit of vessels in the area. Talks between the two nations will begin on Friday in Islamabad.Oil prices were lower, with front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent crude down 16% at $91.47 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude 20.19% lower at $92.79 per barrel.The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release the minutes from its most recent meeting at 2 pm ET.In other world markets, Japan's Nikkei closed 5.4% higher, Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended 3.1% higher, and China's Shanghai Composite finished 2.7% higher. Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 3%, and Germany's DAX index was up 5.3% in Europe's early afternoon session.In equities, Tesla (TSLA) shares were up 4.5% after its new vehicle registrations in the UK rose 20% in March, according to a report by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. United Airlines (UAL) shares were up 11% as oil prices eased after the ceasefire announcement.On the losing side, Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares were down 5.5% after the company said its Q1 global oil-equivalent production is expected to be 6% lower from the previous quarter due to attacks on facilities in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates last month.

Delta Air Lines First-Quarter Results Top Views; Sees Fuel Expense Increase of Over $2 Billion

Delta Air Lines (DAL) on Wednesday reported better-than-expected first-quarter results amid robust corporate and leisure demand, although the carrier flagged a fuel expense increase of more than $2 billion in the current three-month period due to the Middle East war.The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.64 a share for the March quarter, up from $0.45 the year before, topping the FactSet-polled consensus of $0.58. Operating revenue climbed 13% to $15.85 billion. Total passenger revenue gained by 7% while cargo inclined 9%."We delivered earnings that were more than 40% higher than last year, even with a significant increase in fuel costs and operational disruptions across the industry," Chief Executive Ed Bastian said in a statement. The stock jumped 12% in the most recent premarket activity.Operating revenue improved 9.4% to $14.2 billion on an adjusted basis in the first quarter, ahead of the average analyst estimate for $14.05 billion. The metric grew amid "broad demand strength across corporate and leisure," Chief Commercial Officer Joe Esposito said. Adjusted total revenue per available seat mile grew 8.2% on a yearly basis, with gains across all regions.The airline is taking measures to protect its margins and cash flow, including "meaningfully reducing capacity growth with a downward bias until the fuel environment improves, and moving quickly to recapture higher fuel costs," Bastian said.The US and Iran on Tuesday agreed to a two-week ceasefire, having been in a military conflict since the end of February. The war spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices.For the ongoing quarter, Delta anticipates fuel at the forward curve as of April 2, resulting in a projected all-in price of about $4.30 per gallon, pushing fuel costs up by more than $2 billion. In the previous quarter, adjusted fuel price increased 7% year over year to $2.62 per gallon.Adjusted EPS is pegged at $1 to $1.50 for the second quarter on low-teens revenue growth, according to Delta. The Street is looking for non-GAAP EPS of $1.56 and revenue of $17.21 billion. Capacity is expected to be flat year over year amid the airline's capacity reduction and fuel recapture efforts, Esposito said."In the June quarter, we expect to lead the industry with $1 billion of profit," according to Bastian. "And while the recent fuel spike is currently impacting earnings, I'm confident this environment ultimately reinforces Delta's leadership and accelerates long-term earnings power."

$DAL

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Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Wednesday Amid Two-Week US-Iran Ceasefire

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 2.8% and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 3.5% higher in Wednesday's premarket activity amid a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 2.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 2.7%, and Nasdaq futures rising 3.5% before the start of regular trading.Mortgage applications declined further in the week ended April 3 despite a decline in mortgage rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.State-level unemployment data for January are due to be released at 10 am ET, followed by weekly oil stocks data at 10:30 am ET.The minutes of the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released at 2 pm ET.In premarket activity, bitcoin was up by 3.6%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 4% higher, Ether ETF (EETH) advanced 6.2%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) gained 0.04%.Power Play:ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was up 1%, and the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) gained 2.3%. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) advanced 0.2%. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) rose 3.7%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was inactive, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was 2.5% higher.Stellantis (STLA) shares were up more than 8% pre-bell after Reuters reported the vehicle manufacturer is in advanced talks to co-develop an Opel-branded electric sport utility vehicle with its Chinese partner Leapmotor to cut costs and speed up EV development.Winners and Losers:FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) advanced 2.5%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) rose 7.1%, while its bearish counterpart Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) fell 7.3%.Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's (SMFG) shares were up more than 5% pre-bell after a Tuesday statement from Governor Josh Stein's office that Sumitomo's SMBC Group unit will invest $50.5 million to build its second US headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was down 3.8%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) retreated by 4.9%.Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock was down more than 5% before Wednesday's opening bell after the company said it expects its Q1 global oil-equivalent production to be 6% lower compared with Q4 last year due to attacks on facilities in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in March.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) advanced by 4%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 4% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 4.2%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) rose 3.9%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) gained 5.4%.Accenture (ACN) shares were up more than 1% in Wednesday's premarket activity after the company said that it has acquired Spanish cloud-native AI and data company, Keepler Data Tech.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) advanced 1.7%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was up 1.8%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) gained 0.5%. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was 2.8% higher.GSK (GSK) stock was up more than 2% premarket after the company said the Chinese National Medical Products Administration approved its biologic medication Exdensur as a supplemental therapy for adult patients suffering from chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) advanced 3.5%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 3% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) rose 2.8%.Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) stock was up more than 1% before the opening bell after closing the previous session with a 2.2% fall. The company said late Tuesday that total terminal passenger traffic fell 8.9% in March from a year earlier, driven by declines in both domestic and international travelers.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 18% to $92.26 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas retreated by 4% to $2.76 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) was down by 12%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 2.5% lower.Gold futures for May were up by 3.1% at $4,830.50 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures advanced 7.7% to $77.52 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was 1.8% higher, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) rose by 5.6%.

Markets Rally Except for Commodities After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Says Scotiabank

Everything is rallying in financial markets on Wednesday except for commodities after the United States and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire, said Scotiabank.Position covering may be amplifying the swings and driving somewhat of an overreaction, pointed out the bank.Oil prices are volatile but sharply lower by double-digit percentages, although the futures curve remains elevated at sustainably higher prices throughout 2026-27 than the spot prices back at the start of the year, noted the bank.That clearly signals market concern toward a) the possible fragility of the ceasefire amid uncertain negotiations, and b) the longer-term damage to geopolitical risk premiums and infrastructure, stated Scotiabank.Stocks are broadly higher with North America futures up by about 2% to 3%, European stocks are up by 3% to 5%, and Asia-Pacific benchmarks rallied by 3% to 7% across the main benchmarks.Sovereign bond yields are broadly lower with eurozone government bonds outperforming via declines of 20bps-30bps across maturities and countries, while U.S. Treasuries are rallying by 'just' 5bps-7bps, and Canadian government bonds are dearer by 10bps at the front end in a bull steepener, added Scotiabank.The US dollar (USD) is broadly weaker, although the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is slightly underperforming other crosses due to lower oil, according to the bank.

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US-Iran Ceasefire Deal Cheer Lifts Tadawul All Share Index

The Tadawul All Share Index surged as it closed Wednesday trading 2.27% in the green, with global market watchers cheering the US-Iran ceasefire deal.Dominating headlines all over the world is the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump, however, said in his Truth Social account that the two-week agreement is subject to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz."The Kingdom affirms its support for the mediation efforts undertaken by Pakistan to reach a permanent agreement that achieves security and stability and addresses all issues that have caused instability over several decades. The Kingdom also emphasizes the necessity of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for navigation in accordance with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea without any restrictions," Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.Back at home and on the corporate front, Saudi Investment Bank (SASE:1030) closed 2.36% higher as it plans to issue a Saudi riyal-denominated additional tier 1 capital sukuk via a private placement. The lender's offer is subject to regulatory approvals.Meanwhile, eXtra (SASE:4003) and United International Holding (SASE:4083) both logged higher estimated attributable profit and revenue for the three months ended March 31. Both stocks surged 3.13% and 2.26%, respectively.

National Bank Sees Scope for Government of Canada Bond Outperformance Down The Curve Vs. U.S. Treasuries

Since the start of the Middle East conflict, five-year Government of Canada (GoC) bonds and United States Treasuries have moved largely in tandem -- selling off about 35 bps, including early Wednesday's rally, said National Bank of Canada.That's directionally consistent with year-end policy repricing -- where around 50bps of tighter policy is now baked in the U.S. and Canada, relative to the pre-war period, noted the bank.While that move can be justified, National Bank questioned the magnitude of such a move, especially from a cross-border perspective, where the Bank of Canada may have more capacity to remain patient with the overnight rate.As such, the bank sees scope for near-term GoC outperformance down the curve, which should extend into the intermediate, or roughly five-year period, terms as well.

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South Korea's Current Account Reaches Record Surplus in February on Semiconductor Exports

South Korea's balance of payments topped the $20-billion mark for the first time in February due to a surge in semiconductor shipments.The country logged a positive current account balance of $23.19 billion in January, surging from $7.23 billion a year earlier, the Bank of Korea reported Wednesday.The figure is the 34th consecutive month of current account surpluses, Bloomberg said, citing the central bank.Goods exports surged to a new all-time high of $23.36 billion in the month from $8.98 billion in the prior-year period.The figure surpassed the previous peak of $18.85 billion in December 2025, Asia Business Daily reported the same day.Exports surged nearly 30% to $70.37 billion from $54.19 billion. The increase could be attributable to a 158% surge in semiconductor exports, according to the Asia Business Daily report, citing Customs.Imports grew year over year to $47 billion from $45.2 billion.South Korea's service account deficit narrowed to $1.86 billion during the month from $3.38 billion.The central bank attributed the continuing deficit to losses in the travel and manufacturing services accounts.The primary income account logged a surplus of $2.48 billion, up from $2.41 billion, due to higher equity income, the central bank said.Secondary income deficit stayed at $790 million, unchanged from a year earlier.

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Abu Dhabi, Dubai Stocks Bounce Back on US-Iran Ceasefire Deal

Shares in the United Arab Emirates were back in the green on Wednesday as markets breathed a sigh of relief after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan.At the close of trading, the FTSE ADX General Index gained 2.846%, while the DFM General Index surged 6.909%.Oil prices dropped as supply disruption concerns eased after the US and Iran suspended their attacks for two weeks, with US President Donald Trump saying that all military objectives were exceeded. Trump also called the 10-point proposal received from Iran a "workable basis on which to negotiate.""Brent crude fell as low as USD92/bbl on the news, but the drop in prices is contingent on the pre-condition that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. For prices to stabilise at lower levels, oil and gas flows through the strait must pick up again, which remains uncertain. The deal looks fragile, particularly as Iran is allowed to charge fees on ships passing through," Danske Bank said in a note.Back home, UAE's Presidential Adviser Anwar Gargash said in a social media post that the country prevailed in a war it "sincerely sought to avoid" and that it will now take steps to navigate a "complex regional landscape."On the corporate front, petrochemicals company Borouge (ADX:BOROUGE) stocks closed 2.71% higher as its shareholders approved a final dividend of 0.081 Emirati dirham per share for 2025, taking the full-year dividend to 0.162 dirham per share.Over in Dubai, Commercial Bank of Dubai (DFM:CBD) announced it would redeem its $600 million of perpetual additional tier 1 capital securities on April 21. Shares of the Emirati lender closed the session 0.77% in the green.

Fourth Decline in Calgary's Home Sales in The Last Five Months, Notes National Bank

Based on data from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) for the Calgary economic region, National Bank of Canada estimated that seasonally adjusted home sales declined by 5.5% from February to March, marking the fourth decline in five months and the sharpest drop since February 2025, when United States tariffs were first implemented.After trending downward throughout 2025 and the beginning of this year, Calgary home sales in March reached their lowest level since August 2020, when the economy was gradually picking up following the initial shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, pointed out the bank in a note published last week.Despite the Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts in the fall, activity in Calgary's real estate market hasn't rebounded,likely due to ongoing economic uncertainty and, more recently, geopolitical turmoil, stated the bank.Should trade relations improve, the robust performance of the labor market in the region and a potential boost in consumer confidence could stimulate activity in the residential market, according to National Bank.Overall, active listings decreased by 2.9% month over month in March but remained among the highest levels seen since 2021. This is partly due to the slowdown in sales, which allowed supply to accumulate, but also to a historic level of activity in the new construction market.Indeed, housing starts and new home completions reached record levels, causing the stock of unsold new properties to jump to its highest level since 2020, added the bank.

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Middle East Views, Easing Interest Rates Buoy European Bourses Midday

European bourses tracked sharply higher midday Wednesday as traders weighed prospects following the morning announcement of a two-week Persian Gulf ceasefire between the US and Iran.The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 Index was up 4% mid-session.Tech and bank stocks led large gains on continental trading floors, while oil shares lagged.Front-month North Sea Brent crude-oil futures were down 14% midday at $93.91 a barrel.Yields on benchmark 10-year German bonds were lower, near 2.92%.Investors also eyed Wall Street futures flashing green, and higher closes overnight on Asian exchanges, led by a 6.9% rise on Seoul's KOSPI index.In economic news, seasonally adjusted retail sales in the euro area declined by 0.2% month over month in February and fell by 0.3% in the broader European Union, Eurostat reported. Year over year, retail sales advanced by 1.7% in February in both the euro area and the bloc.The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index was up 6.6%, and the Stoxx 600 Banks Index also rose 6.6%.The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil and Gas Index eased 2.5%, while the Stoxx 600 Europe Food and Beverage Index advanced 1.9%.The REITE, a European REIT index, rose 4.9%On the national market indexes, Germany's DAX was up 5%, and the FTSE 100 in London rose 2.9%. The CAC 40 in Paris was up 4.6%, and Spain's IBEX 35 advanced 4.1%.The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index was down 21% at 24.39, but still indicating above-average volatility for European stock markets in the next 30 days, a negative signal. A reading above 20 indicates choppier markets ahead, while below 20 suggests calmer exchanges.

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