Oil Risk Premium Eases but Supply Tightness Persists, Rystad Energy Says
Oil prices fell below $100 per barrel after the ceasefire, with the 2026 Brent outlook cut to $87/bbl from $97/bbl, signaling easing panic premiums, Rystad Energy strategists said in a Wednesday note.Rystad said the truce has reduced some geopolitical pressure but not the full risk premium, and prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels due to ongoing supply disruptions."Oil plunged below $100 per barrel after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire," said Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy, noting expectations for reduced military activity.He said "refiners should use this window to resume more opportunistic buying," but warned that delaying purchases could worsen product tightness even as tensions ease.The ceasefire has allowed futures markets to quickly adjust, reflecting lower disruption risks, though physical oil markets remain tight and slower to normalize, the analysis said.Rystad noted that current conditions reflect controlled access through the Strait of Hormuz, with transit still dependent on coordination with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and technical limitations rather than full normalization.Reports suggest Iran and Oman may charge transit fees during the ceasefire, reinforcing selective access and continued control over shipping flows, the analysis said.The restart of tanker activity is expected to be gradual, as shipowners and insurers await clearer signs that operational risks have declined, Rystad said.This has widened the gap between futures and physical markets, with prices falling while physical premiums, tanker rates, and supply concerns remain elevated, the report said.Rystad said geopolitical risks may ease faster than operational risks, keeping physical markets tight despite improved sentiment in paper markets.Markets still need to watch for longer-term pricing shifts as ceasefire details emerge, with risks including restricted tanker access, weaker export reliability, and continued safety concerns in Gulf transit, the analysis said.Shipowners' sentiment remains key, as fears of vessel damage, including from underwater mines, could keep operators cautious and limit a full recovery in shipping activity, the report said.In an escalation scenario, futures would react first and most sharply, with near-term contracts absorbing higher premiums as traders price in supply risks, tanker disruptions, and the potential for wider regional conflict, the analysis said.The backwardation structure has weakened notably, with middle distillates seeing declines of up to 40%, as premiums tied to near-term contracts eased with fading war-related pressures, the analysis said.The Brent-Dubai spread remains elevated at about $9 for June, limiting arbitrage opportunities and restricting flows from the Atlantic Basin to Asia, the report said.Asian buyers face constrained supply, with Gulf shipments delayed and Atlantic cargoes uneconomical, leaving refiners with limited purchasing options, Rystad said.The ceasefire does little to resolve near-term supply issues, as shipments to Asia could take three to six weeks to normalize, leaving the region under continued pressure, according to the analysis.