-- Canadian railways' revenue ton miles (RTMs) were higher in the first quarter, with RTMs at Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) up 3% and up 2% at Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO), notes RBC Capital in its review of the first quarter.
Volumes at both rails benefited from higher grain volumes on the back of a record Canadian grain crop, write analysts Walter Spracklin and James McGarragle. According to StatsCan, Canadian crop production in 2026 is expected to be up 10% y/y due to higher yields, the analysts noted.
Performance metrics also improved in the first quarter, mainly due to better winter conditions. Class 1 train velocity was up 4% and terminal dwell was down 6% in the quarter.
RBC is calling for a modest recovery in the second half, in line with recent PMI readings, with tariffs and geopolitical conflicts posing key risks to the outlook. Spracklin and McGarragle also flag potential upside, in terms of over-the-road conversion prompted by higher truck rates, surging diesel prices, as well as a pick-up in industrial volumes, that are consistent with current macro indicators.
"We continue to see CPKC as best positioned reflecting synergy opportunities related to the KCS integration, especially in the company's intermodal franchise."
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