-- European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, rebounding from their five-week low the day before, after Israeli strikes in Lebanon added to uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire.
The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 1.25% at 45.86 euros ($53.59) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were up 1.65% to 116.13 pence ($1.54) per therm.
The two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US, Israel, and Iran came under strain over Israeli strikes on Lebanon which the BBC reported killed at least 203. Tehran has called the strikes a breach of the truce.
On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the ceasefire terms were "clear and explicit," and included a halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.
Meanwhile, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that US forces will "remain in place in, and around, Iran," until a complete agreement is reached.
Trump also warned that if an agreement is not reached within these two weeks, then the US will restart its offensive against Tehran, "bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."
This highlights the fragility of the truce, with lingering uncertainties continuing to keep global energy and equity markets on edge, even as it marked a major de-escalation.
Despite Trump's statements, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the sixth-week running, with just 11 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.
This is in stark contrast to the typical daily average of 138 vessels moving through the Strait during normal times, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.
US Centcom Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper provided an update on Operation Epic Fury on Thursday, saying that joint efforts by US and Israeli forces had led to a "generational military defeat" for Iran, which he said has left the country unable to "project power beyond its own borders".
According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, even with the Straits reopening, the markets will face "higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing," as it would take time for major production and export facilities to come online.
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie shared similar concerns, noting that even with the Strait open, it would take weeks or even months before the Middle East's shut-in capacity starts to come online.
The firm estimated that even if Qatar begins to restart its Ras Laffan LNG facilities on Thursday, the full restoration of all 12 of its trains could take until the end of August. At the same time, its damaged capacity at the South site might remain offline for several years.
This comes at a time when European markets are stepping into refilling season, with significantly depleted inventories, at just 28.77%, compared to 35% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.