-- Oil prices rose early Thursday as Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz while maintaining the two-week ceasefire agreement reached on Tuesday with the United States included a pledge to halt Israeli attacks on Lebanon. This is disputed by both Israel, which continues to bomb its northern neighbor, as well as the United States.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for May delivery was last seen up $4.77 to US$99.18 per barrel, while June Brent oil was up $3.15 to US$97.90.
WTI plunged 16% on Wednesday following the ceasefire agreement, pushing back below US$100 per barrel on hopes the deal would reopen tanker shipments from the Persian Gulf, a region that supplied 20% of daily oil demand prior to the Feb. 21 start to the war.
However the ceasefire appears to be fragile as Iran continued attacks on Persian Gulf countries on Tuesday in response to Israel's bombing of Lebanon. Tankers trapped in the Gulf since the start of the war remain mostly unable to move through the Strait as Iran said it will continue to limit traffic and demand a toll for passage.
"Crude prices rebounded following their biggest one-day drop since April 2020, with Brent challenging resistance ahead of US$100. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed after Israeli attacks on Lebanon -- seen by Iran as a breach of the fragile ceasefire. According to the WSJ, Iran has told mediators it will limit traffic through the Strait to around 12 ships per day and impose tolls under the ceasefire. That is a sharp reduction from the 100+ daily transits before the war, effectively leaving most of the 1,000+ commercial vessels inside the Persian Gulf stranded," Saxo Bank noted.
The Wall Street Journal reported Iran has now stopped its regional strikes, with no attacks reported for 24 hours, raising some hopes the ceasefire will hold ahead of negotiations over a permanent deal that will begin this weekend in Pakistan. U.S. Vice-President JD. Vance will lead the American side in the talks with Iranian officials.