-- According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) on Tuesday, seasonally adjusted home sales edged up 1.4% between February and March, the first increase in eight months, said National Bank of Canada.
As a result, transaction levels in Toronto remain among the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis, noted the bank. In fact, sales were 40.8% below their historical average.
The lack of momentum in the Toronto market is beginning to cause concern, especially since the Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts last fall failed to provide the spark the market had been hoping for to revive market activity, stated National Bank.
There is no doubt that trade uncertainty with the United States continues to weigh heavily on Toronto's housing market, against a backdrop of ongoing affordability challenges, pointed out the bank.
The slight increase in transactions in March is good news, but it is still too early to say for certain that this marks the beginning of a sustained upward trend, as tariff-related and now geopolitical uncertainty remains palpable, and the improvement in the labor market observed last fall in the region has partially reversed in recent months.
On the supply side, new listings edged up 1.2% from February to March, following an 11.5% drop in February. Overall, National Bank estimates that active listings decreased by 3.5% during the month, marking the first decline in five months but remaining very high on a historical basis.
Market conditions in Toronto, measured by the active listings-to-sales ratio, tightened in March for the first time in six months but continued to be among the loosest on record. Meanwhile, selling prices fell by 0.6% on a monthly basis, according to the MLS home price index.
On a year-over-year basis, prices were down 7.2%.
For Q1 2026, cumulative sales were down 7.2% compared with the same period in 2025, representing the slowest beginning of the year since 1995, added the bank.